China's new-home prices fall again in September as big cities level off

China's National Bureau of Statistics published September home price data on 19 October 2026. Across the 70 cities it tracks, new-home prices fell 0.1% from August, according to Reuters' calculation from the bureau's figures. The monthly pace matched August's.

The national figure hides a split between large and smaller cities. Reuters reports that prices in the largest cities showed signs of stabilising, while prices in smaller cities kept falling. Xinhua, reporting the same release, describes narrower declines in second- and third-tier cities.

Monthly declines hold at 0.1% while the annual fall narrows

On a year-on-year basis, new-home prices fell 2.8% in September, narrowing from a 3.0% drop in August, according to Reuters. Reuters says the annual decline has run since June 2023, and that prices have not risen on a monthly or annual basis for more than three years.

No national resale price percentage appears in the coverage. Xinhua reports that 17 of the 70 cities recorded monthly rises in new-home prices, and nine recorded monthly rises in second-hand prices. The Eastern Herald's own count of the NBS tables finds resale prices fell month on month in 59 cities and rose in nine.

First-tier prices level off as smaller cities diverge

Xinhua gives first-tier new-home prices down 0.5% year on year in September, 0.4 percentage points narrower than in August. Second-hand prices in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen fell 1.5% year on year, down from 2.7% in August. Xinhua also says first-tier home prices rose month on month in September.

The Eastern Herald's count of the NBS tables gives Shanghai up 0.2% month on month, Beijing down 0.2%, Shenzhen up 0.3% and Guangzhou up 0.2%. Reuters links the first-tier stabilisation partly to Shanghai's further easing of homebuying restrictions and the subsidies it announced in August.

Smaller cities are less consistent across the reports. Reuters says new and resale prices kept falling month on month and year on year there. Xinhua says declines in second- and third-tier cities moderated from August, without giving exact figures. The Eastern Herald gives Luzhou's new-home prices as 7.6% lower year on year.

Investment down 20.6% and mortgage subsidies aimed at smaller cities

Real estate development investment fell 20.6% year on year in the first three quarters of 2026, according to Xinhua. Reuters says property investment and home sales both contracted faster over the same nine months, but gives no total sales percentage.

Xinhua gives other measures. The floor area of existing homes sold under registered contracts rose 10.7% in the first nine months, and existing homes made up more than half of housing transactions. The floor area of newly built commercial properties available for sale fell 1.5% at the end of September, and properties on sale for less than three years fell 5%.

Reuters reports that in late September the central bank and financial regulator announced measures to subsidise mortgage interest for eligible buyers of homes priced up to 1.5 million yuan, about $224,417. The measures are aimed at smaller cities. Reuters notes that the price cap is hardly enough for a one-bedroom apartment in a tier-one city.

For developers, the figures show investment falling and the floor area of unsold new commercial property down 1.5% year on year. The reports do not address foreign buyers or foreign lenders.

The official view and what the reports leave open

Mao Shengyong, a spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, said the overall property market is moving in a positive direction. He pointed to improvements in transactions, inventory reduction and property prices, according to Xinhua.

Reuters says the slump weighs on consumer confidence and local government revenue, and that many homeowners are saving rather than spending as home values fall.

The coverage does not set out measures beyond the late-September mortgage subsidies, and it does not give a timetable for the next monthly release.