Ryanair chief says European air fares could rise by up to 20% next year
Michael O'Leary told a Brussels news conference on 20 October that fares could climb by as much as 20% in 2027, tying the rise to oil prices, taxes and weaker rivals.
Ryanair chief executive Michael O'Leary said on Tuesday 20 October 2026 that ticket prices in Europe could rise by as much as 20% next year. He spoke at a news conference in Brussels, according to Bloomberg.
He linked the forecast to oil prices lifted by the war involving Iran, to higher taxes, and to pressure on weaker airlines. Bloomberg reported that he described the expected increase as the biggest on record.
What drives the forecast
Fuel is the first factor. Bloomberg reported that jet fuel costs have soared since the Iran war began in late February, and that Ryanair is about 85% unhedged against oil prices for next year. Most other European airlines are in a similar position, it said.
The Irish Times reported on 2 September that about 80% of Ryanair's needs for the current financial year were hedged at $67 a barrel. The remaining 20% has to be paid at inflated prices, with jet fuel then trading at $140 a barrel, the Irish Times reported.
Capacity is the second factor. O'Leary said some airlines are struggling, which reduces the number of seats on the market, Bloomberg reported. It listed Air Baltic and Volotea as restructuring. It also reported that Lufthansa beat Air France-KLM to a stake in Portugal's TAP, and that Apollo Global Management is laying out a framework to take over easyJet.
Ryanair's own September statement made the same argument. If high oil prices continue into summer 2027, it said, short-haul airfares would "increase materially". It added that some less well-hedged competitors will struggle to maintain capacity or even survive this winter season, the Irish Times reported.
Taxes and aircraft deliveries
Taxes are the third factor. Bloomberg reported that Ryanair will cut its footprint in France and Belgium in response to higher taxes there, and that O'Leary criticised regulation in both markets.
On aircraft supply, O'Leary said he aims to receive the first Boeing MAX 10 in January, with about 16 more up to April, Bloomberg reported.
What it means for travellers and travel businesses
Fuel surcharges will not cover the higher oil bill, Bloomberg reported O'Leary as saying. He does not expect fare increases to cover the higher oil bills either, so airline margins would be squeezed.
Ryanair has already acted on capacity. In September it cut its traffic target for 2027 from 216 million passengers to 214 million. The airline said the cut should reduce its winter losses by €70 million to €100 million, the Irish Times reported.
Summer traffic is still planned to grow. Ryanair is on track for April to October passenger numbers to rise by more than 5%, from 138 million to 145 million, the Irish Times reported. On 9 October it put its first 29 new Summer 2027 routes on sale. Its Summer 2027 schedule is set to cover over 2,500 routes across 230 destinations, and it urged customers to book before fares "inevitably go up".
“Ryanair is about 85% unhedged against oil prices for next year, and most other European airlines are in a similar position.”
What happens next
The 20% figure is a forecast for next year, and Ryanair's September warning was conditional on high oil prices continuing through to summer 2027.
Ryanair's shares are down 25% this year and fell as much as 2.1%, Bloomberg reported. The airline still expects a profit this financial year, though below last year's record, the Irish Times reported.
The January MAX 10 delivery that O'Leary aims for is the next date to watch.
